Tapping China’s Consumer-Culture Revolution
“…For investors, the allure of ‘Made in China’ is giving way to ‘Consumed in China.’ With a consumer mentality taking hold in the world’s most-populous nation, many professional investors are shifting from China’s export-driven manufacturers to its home-focused providers of goods and services…”
By Jeff D. Opdyke
Source: Wall Street Journal
For investors, the allure of “Made in China” is giving way to “Consumed in China.”
With a consumer mentality taking hold in the world’s most-populous nation, many professional investors are shifting from China’s export-driven manufacturers to its home-focused providers of goods and services.
China’s three stock exchanges — Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen — have suffered steep falls from last October’s highs, ranging from 17% to 31%. That’s created buying opportunities in once-pricey Chinese consumer stocks for investors looking to allocate part of their portfolio to volatile emerging-market assets, strategists say.
Department-store operator Golden Eagle Retail Group Ltd., Tsingtao Brewery Co. and even London-based banking giant HSBC Holdings PLC — which has a growing presence in China — are on many professional investors’ buy lists. Meanwhile, Chinese exporters are looking less alluring as the U.S. and other large economies lose altitude.
Jim Trippon, a Houston money manager who edits the China Stock Digest and runs a China investment fund, has dumped exporters like Suntech Power Holdings Co., a maker of solar-energy products, and Actions Semiconductor Co., and bought the likes of HSBC and Internet company 51Job Inc.
For American investors, participating in China’s consumer boom is getting easier. Several of the larger consumer-oriented companies, including telecom giant China Mobile Ltd., China Eastern Airlines Corp. and China Life Insurance Co., now trade on the New York Stock Exchange.
Many of the rest, including shoemaker Li Ning Co.; Dongfeng Motor Co., a major auto maker in a country where car ownership is ramping up; and fashion house Ports Design Ltd. can be easily had on the Hong Kong exchange. E*Trade Financial Corp. last year launched a new feature that allows U.S. account holders to trade directly in several markets, including Hong Kong. InteractiveBrokers LLC’s InteractiveBrokers.com also provides access to Hong Kong.
Trading directly in the so-called B-share market — Shanghai- and Shenzhen-listed companies that foreigners are allowed to buy — is possible through a few foreign brokerage firms. But while there are opportunities there for individuals, professional investors caution that the listed companies aren’t subject to the same degree of regulatory scrutiny as shares trading in Hong Kong, Singapore and the U.S., and that these markets can be particularly unstable.
Despite these concerns — and despite the corrections in the Chinese exchanges, which reflect global market downturns — China’s consumer economy has been surging, and Chinese markets have already begun rebounding from their recent lows. Retail sales growth has been running at an inflation-adjusted 13% annual rate, salaries are rising fast, and economists see a trend toward greater spending.
“Consumption growth long-term will play a more and more important role in the economy,” says Richard Gao, lead portfolio manager for San Francisco-based Matthews China Fund, which has a long-time concentration on Chinese consumer stocks. Its top holdings include China Mobile; car maker Dongfeng; China Merchants Bank Co., one of China’s major commercial and consumer banks; and Hong Kong & China Gas Co., which is benefiting from rapid urbanization and a move to cleaner-burning natural gas.
Per-capita gross domestic product, which measures Chinese incomes, is now around $2,000 a year, a level that Credit Suisse Group says has historically marked when consumer spending becomes a nation’s leading driver of economic growth. Domestic consumption has become the biggest factor in the economy for the first time in seven years, according to a Chinese government report earlier this year.
Certainly, foreign multinationals operating in China, such as American beverage giant PepsiCo Inc. and French luxury goods retailer LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA, should benefit as well. Increasingly popular local brands, though, likely will perform better. After all, the multinationals do only a portion of their business in China and “are not a pure play,” says China Stock Digest’s Mr. Trippon.
In March, Credit Suisse listed “Chinese Brand Names” as one of the 10 themes to watch in 2008. The firm’s consumption-focused model portfolio is stacked with China-region opportunities, such as Hong Kong air carrier Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. and China Resources Enterprise Ltd., a consumer conglomerate with products including Snow, a leading beer brand.
One problem: Even after the market slide, many Chinese stocks still trade at lofty valuations. Inner Mongolia’s China Mengniu Dairy Co., which is on the Credit Suisse list, trades at more than 35 times 2007 earnings, though the shares are down 33% from their October highs.
Still, some portfolio managers argue, the growth rates of these Chinese companies are robust enough to justify the lofty price/earnings multiples. At Mengniu, expanding demand for dairy products has driven a fivefold increase in sales in the past four years, and a tripling of per-share profit.
Matthews China Fund is a longstanding shareholder in Shangri-La Asia Ltd., a Hong Kong hotelier that operates luxury and midrange properties across Asia. The shares have dropped 19% from their high, and their earnings multiple is now 22. That’s still higher than the Hong Kong exchange’s average of 14. Nevertheless, Shangri-la should enjoy years of growth from the expected addition of at least 17 hotels under way in China. The World Travel and Tourism Council expects that Chinese tourism will expand by more than 9% annually over the next decade.
A big impetus is burgeoning brand awareness in China, says Samantha Ho, Hong Kong-based lead manager of the AIM China Fund. This is in a country that has never paid much attention to the name on the label.
At 31 times earnings, Ports Design has seen sales surge to nearly 1.4 billion yuan ($200 million) in 2007 from 470 million yuan in 2002 on the strength of growing consumer demand for higher quality, branded apparel. Though down 23% from its HK$31.50 ($4.04) high last year, the company boasted a 52% increase in per-share earnings for 2007, which it reported in March.
Another promising brand: Shanghai-based and Hong Kong-listed Li Ning Co., sometimes called the Nike of China. Its branded footwear appears on the feet of a few NBA stars in the U.S., and the company has even signed an endorsement deal with Shaquille O’Neal. Just recently Li Ning opened a design office in Portland, Ore., Nike’s backyard, possibly setting the stage to compete in the U.S. market.
Its rich multiple of 47 times earnings is offset by annual sales and profit growth of 28% and 33%, respectively, from 2003 to 2007.
Not all of China’s consumer-centric stocks are richly valued. Mr. Trippon, of the China Stock Digest, points to companies like Beijing’s China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., known as Sinopec.
The shares lost nearly half their value over the past six months — the result of a profit warning related to state control over gas prices — and now show an earnings multiple of 12, on par with Exxon Mobil Corp. “Yet the [earnings] growth is faster,” says Mr. Trippon, because more and more Chinese motorists are burning increasing amounts of gasoline.
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It was a dreary day here today, so I just took to piddeling around online and found…
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